Abandon All Hope Ye Who Faces Justin Martinez (For the Next 5-8 Years)
Mike Hazen Strikes Again
If you follow me on Twitter (@GoldyHappens) you know I’ve been a day 1 Justin Martinez fan. In 2023 when I saw Justin Martinez hit 102 in a Spring Training game I instantly went to eBay and bought as many J-Mart 1st auto cards I could find. It’s been a long time since the Diamondbacks had a truly electric elite stuff arm come up from the minors like Justin Martinez. So it’s safe to say I’m pretty pumped about this Justin Martinez extension.
Here’s a breakdown of the deal:
-Currently had 2 pre-arb years ($800k per year) then 3 arbitration years left right now
-Most importantly the #DBacks get 2 club options (2030-31) & 2032 conditional club option
-Cash flow: $3.5M, $2M, $3M, $4M, $5.5M -Club options $7M & $9M -Deal can max out at $39M via performance escalators
-The condition option is worth $3MM and triggers if Martinez has elbow surgery at any point in the deal or spends a certain number of days on the injured list.
This extension reminds me a lot of the Emmanuel Clase Guardians extension, 5 years $20M w/ 2 more option years which has been insanely clutch for the Guardians. Clase signed this deal before the 2022 season. Clase was coming off an insane 1.29 ERA 0.96 WHIP, 2.11 FIP, 71 G 69.1 IP 74K season. Justin Martinez 2024 season posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.59 FIP, 64 G, 72.2 IP, 91 K.
Over the course of 5 years, $18M may be fair value for 2 pre-arb minimum years and 3 arb years. There’s 2 massive ways the Diamondbacks can win this extension, just like the Guardians have won the Clase extension.
You can now make Justin Martinez the closer without any financial penalty. It’s no secret that saves are used in the arbitration process to boost RP’s value. For example Clase makes $4.9M & $6.4M the next 2 years, he would easily be in the $8M and $15M range those 2 years as a long time closer. In comparison a Jason Adam, who has been an elite 7/8 inning guy since 2022 (2.12 ERA last 3 years) has made $2.7M and $4.8M in the arbitration process last year and this year.
The year 6 & 7 options are massive. At just $7M and $9M, that is a massive steal at those price points. Just about every low tier closer or 7/8 guy in free agency got $10M AAV…. while the Josh Hader & Tanner Scott’s of the world push $20M a year.
This is truly a no risk A+ signing for the Diamondbacks. With just $18M guaranteed spread over 5 years, you can’t get ANY free agent pitcher for $3.6M AAV. Justin Martinez has true top 5 closer in MLB potential. These are the type of deals that keep your championship window open as long as possible.
Good job Mike.
-Goldy Happens