Bullpen Breakdown
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The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen has always been the Achilles heel of the Mike Hazen era. Here are the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA rank throughout the recent years:
2023: 18th (4.22 ERA) *24th 4.72 ERA before Ryan Thompson’s 8/27 debut*
2022: 25th (4.58 ERA)
2021: 29th (5.08 ERA)
2020: 19th (4.60 ERA)
The Diamondbacks bullpen was just as bad as prior years for the first 5 months of the 2023 season until Ryan Thompson & Andrew Saalfrank came to stabilize the bullpen. Some great news is that 2023 bullpen that dominated in September and October will fully return for 2024. Here is my current 2024 bullpen projection assuming the usual 8 man bullpen format:
CL Paul Sewald
8th Kevin Ginkel
RHP: Ryan Thompson, Miguel Castro, Luis Frias
LHP: Andrew Saalfrank & Joe Mantiply
Long RP: One of the SP5 losers between Henry, Nelson, Cecconi, Jarvis (I think Tommy Henry wins the SP5 spot)
There are some intriguing arms that I’m excited to watch this Spring who I believe can sneak into the Opening Day bullpen. Let’s assume Sewald, Ginkel, Thompson are obvious locks.
Luis Frias is out of options, meaning he cannot be sent down to AAA without going through waivers. His strong 2nd half will certainly earn him an Opening Day spot.
Due to his contract, Miguel Castro’s spot is safe. Castro was streaky in 2023. Early in the season, Miguel Castro was pitching well enough to be the closer. At other points Miguel Castro was a lock to blow any lead he was given. By the time the playoffs rolled around he was a solid middle relief option. For 3 months Castro was legitimately elite, for 3 months he was terrible.
Miguel Castro is guaranteed $5M in 2024, so you may as well see if September & October Castro continues into 2024. Sewald, Ginkel, Thompson, Frias, Castro lock up 5/8 spots, the 2 lefties spots may be up for grabs.
Andrew Saalfrank was great in his 2023 debut. Definitely a traditional lefty specialist, his limited splits do support dominance vs lefties and good work vs righties.
It does feel like Saalfrank got figured out a little bit in the playoffs. That could be credited to being seen several days in a row, but as a true 2 pitch guy, Saalfrank needs to be used as a lefty specialist as much as you can in the 3 batter minimum era.
Everyday Joe Mantiply is the front runner to take the 2nd lefty RP spot. 2023 was a tough year for Mantiply, who went on the IL twice with shoulder and hamstring injuries, then got sent down to AAA in June. Post AAA stint, fully healthy Joe re-found his form and was back to a reliable Everyday Joe.
Saalfrank and Mantiply are the front runners, but Kyle Nelson and my dark horse Brandon Hughes are definitely in the hunt. Kyle Nelson was maybe the only Diamondbacks RP’s who didn’t turn a corner late in the season. Nelson also didn’t pitch anywhere close to as good as Saalfrank/Mantiply vs lefties.
The option I’m extremely excited to watch this Spring is Brandon Hughes. Today we found out that the Diamondbacks have signed Brandon Hughes to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.
2022 Brandon Hughes was fantastic.
57 G, 57.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 68 K with 8 saves.
Brandon Hughes was pretty solid vs lefties and righties in his 2022 rookie season too.
Brandon Hughes battled knee issues all season, starting with an IL stint to begin the year. He struggled on the mound pitching through the injury before he eventually had a knee surgery that was described as “a surgical debridement of his left knee” by the Cubs. If Hughes is fully healthy for the first time since 2022, Hughes has the ability to be the best Diamondback LHP in the bullpen. He might be the #1 guy I’m most intrigued to watch this Spring.
As for the other lefties in camp, Kyle Backhus & top pitching prospect Yu-Min Lin probably aren’t MLB ready yet. Logan Allen & Konnor Pilkington are starting pitching depth. Jose Castillo has been battling injuries for a half decade now, but was electric pre injury. I broke down Jose Castillo signing and other MiLB signings here earlier this offseason.
The 8th bullpen spot likely will go to a long reliever. I think Tommy Henry will win the 5th SP job, with Ryne Nelson, Bryce Jarvis and Slade Cecconi in the hunt. I’d prefer to keep Slade Cecconi stretched out as a starter (and Henry if he doesn’t win the job). Bryce Jarvis may be a RP in the long run anyways, maybe giving him a leg up in the long reliever role. Ryne Nelson made 27 starts last year but in my opinion the “stuff” may not be there. His World Series 5.1 scoreless innings as a RP intrigues me in the long relief role. Ryne Nelson was a great reliever in college too with an 104 K season in 65 IP in his final Oregon season.
While I think it will be difficult for a RHP middle RP to make the team, there are 3 players in that profile who will be fun to watch this Spring.
Justin Martinez has the best arm in the entire organization. An average fastball of 100.5 MPH is insane. I’ll never forget attending his MLB debut and the crowd being in amazement with each radar gun reading. Routinely touching 90 on sliders is wild too.
Justin Martinez just has zero control, but if anyone can develop Martinez, it’s Strom.
Corbin Martin was one of the major stories of 2023 Spring Training as his transition from SP to RP was going well. Corbin Martin had the inside track with 9 K’s through 5.2 IP, 3.18 ERA before tearing his right lat in a brutal season ending injury. Reportedly ready for Spring Training, Corbin Martin is a former top prospect (main piece in Zack Greinke trade) and hopefully can stay healthy and fight for a roster spot.
Finally, Peter Strzelecki will also compete for a bullpen spot. The return for Andrew Chafin, Strzelecki struggled in AAA Reno with 12 earned runs in 12.2 IP. Strzelecki was better in the majors while striking out over a hitter per inning, including a really strong 2022. Likely a depth piece, but will be in the bullpen race. Also, Peter Strzelecki is just a great relief pitcher name.
The thing to remember about bullpens is that they are completely random and things change year to year. This is why I typically prefer teams to take as many flyers as possible and develop relievers, instead of paying for them in free agency. The Diamondbacks long and unsuccessful run of signing free agent RP’s makes this a much better strategy. For example, Sewald was acquired via trade in the midst of a strong season. Ginkel/Saalfrank/Frias were home grown RP’s that took massive steps and surprised in 2023. Thompson/Mantiply/Nelson/Hughes were minor league deal or waiver claims. The 2 free agent signings on the books right now is Miguel Castro and Mark Melancon’s buyout.
The Diamondbacks philosophy seems to now be:
Sign high upside arms with great stuff (see my MiLB signing article, every pitcher throws GAS)
Draft and develop more RP’s (Last couple drafts have been more pitcher heavy)
Trade for RP’s having good seasons (Sewald) and only pay RP’s on smaller 1 year deals like Castro & Chafin (unsuccessful in the Hazen era, and the Diamondbacks have yet to even do this in 2024).
With pitching guru and miracle worker Brett Strom, this new bullpen strategy is smart.
Besides the SP5 race, the bullpen will be an intriguing storyline to watch this Spring. The Diamondbacks finally have depth and competition in the pen… we’ve come a long way from last Spring.
-@GoldyHappens