D-Backs Bullpen Update
Where the projected bullpen stands on March 10th
We’re getting so close everybody.
As I write this, we’re now just 2024 Luis Guillorme (13) days away from Opening Day. The biggest (only) roster storyline to watch these next 2 weeks in my opinion is the bullpen race. As a massive Brandon Pfaadt believer, I think he gets the #5 spot behind Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, E-Rod. Garrett Hampson seems to have a great shot to win the Kevin Newman bench role in 2025 and with Jose Herrera out of options, it feels like an easy cop out to have him back-up Moreno at C2 as Adrian Del Castillo “works on his defense” in Reno.
With the 13 max pitcher rule in baseball, this means there will be 8 RP’s in the bullpen. There’s 6 slots that are 100% a lock in my mind:
CORE FOUR: Justin Martinez, AJ Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson
JOE MANTIPLY: Joe Mantiply
1 LONG RP SPOT: Either Ryne Nelson becomes the long RP/spot SP or stays stretched out as a SP in AA OR the Diamondbacks put Jordan Montgomery in this role. Monty was as bad as expected in his Cactus League debut and is closer to being Madison Bumgarner style released then earning a rotation spot. Either way, I don’t think BOTH would be in the MLB bullpen as you need one of these guys to be fully ready to step into a rotation spot when injuries arise.
This leaves 2 spots truly up for grabs right now. There’s 2 clear front runners for these spots:
KENDALL GRAVEMAN: Kendall Graveman is a lock for the 7th spot IF he’s healthy. Coming off a major shoulder surgery, Graveman has missed time with back soreness this Spring. Graveman still has enough time to be a full go by Opening Day, but time is starting to run out if he doesn’t get back to mound work ASAP.
DREY JAMESON: Drey has been electric this Spring as he hit 101 MPH in an AB vs Ohtani this week. For someone who is A) coming off Tommy John B) Didn’t have great control before being injured, it’s REALLY encouraging to see that velocity + just 1 walk through 4 ST games so far. Graveman & Jameson in my opinion are obvious options for these 2 last spots.
In the event that Kendall Graveman isn’t ready for Opening Day or the Diamondbacks look to limited Drey Jameson’s workload in AAA… here are my front runners as of now. (Keep in mind Blake Walston Tommy John and eventual move to the 60 Day IL opens up a roster spot for Non-Roster-Invite or waiver claim later on).
#1 SHELBY MILLER: I can’t believe I’m really typing this out, but Shelby Miller has really turned around his career once he became a RP only. Shelby Miller has always thrown a really good fastball. Shelby Miller having one of the best fastballs in the MLB in 2015 is the reason the Diamondbacks made the worst trade ever to get him…
As we know in 2016 Shelby Miller lost some velo, lost his fastball control and posted one of the worst seasons I can remember from a Diamondback….
Fast forward 7 years, a couple arm surgeries and multiple failed attempts at being a starting pitcher and re-finding his young 2013-16 self to 2023 and the Dodgers pitching lab saving Shelby Miller’s career. As a full time RP, Shelby Miller was truly great in 2023 for the first time in a long time posting 1.71 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 42 IP.
As a 1 inning RP Miller could rely on his fastball, boosted by his top tier extension and really succeed. The Tigers bought at high and got mixed results from Shelby Miller as they tried to make him a high leverage RP. Miller posted an elite 0.97 WHIP but a 4.53 ERA and a 6-8 record in 51 GP made Shelby Miller settle for a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks.
If you’re the Tigers and trying to make Shelby Miller a candidate for saves, yikes. The Diamondbacks are just looking for their #7 option in the pen and I actually like Shelby Miller in this role. What a cool and weird comeback story this could for someone who has been hated for a near decade and the consensus worst trade ever, to come back to AZ and have success would be pretty cool.
More important than being a good story, Shelby Miller has thrown the ball well this Spring. Shelby Miller has pitched in 4 games, 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 0.60 WHIP.Shelby has been sitting comfortably 94-96 on his fastball which is up from his 93.5 MPH average in 2024 and I think ditching the splitter and ridding fastball/sweeper mix would help Shelby out too. For what it’s worth, today “A” bullpen day featuring Miller sandwiched between Ginkel & Puk may be Torey showing his cards in this battle.
#2 WAIVER CLAIM/FREE AGENT: As noted before, the Blake Walston Tommy John news makes it easy for Shelby Miller to get a bullpen spot or bring in an outside RP. Kyle Nelson also has really struggled this Spring and doesn’t quite have his full velocity back yet either. I think he could DFA’d and easily clear waivers and stay with the org if you need another spot too.
I have the idea of a waiver claim or free agent signing above Bryce Jarvis for the final spot if needed. Ideally the 6 locks above + Drey + Miller is the 8, but if another spot opens up I could see the Diamondbacks look outside the org.
It is important to remember the frenzy of moves, specifically pitchers, around opening Day as players opt out of their minor league deals or get DFA’d because they’re out of options.
On 3/28 the last year the Diamondbacks re-signed Kevin Newman, signed Jordan Montgomery, traded RHP Peter Strzelecki to CLE after he didnt make the team and DFA Emmanuel Rivera. This is to say there will be plenty of moves around Opening Day and the Diamondbacks could snag some more bullpen depth at this time.
#3 Bryce Jarvis: Bryce Jarvis is the final stop/worst case scenario depth guy for this bullpen. He has zero upside, but can eat innings. Career 3.14 ERA is really good, especially for a bullpen that’s been a disaster.
There’s just zero upside with Bryce Jarvis. There’s nothing wrong with having Jarvis in Reno head to be called up when we need a fresh arm. Just 50 K’s in 83 IP, most of this work come in mop up low leverage too. Check out Jarvis leverage stats from last year:
In “late & close” games hitters hit .350 with .960 OPS vs Jarvis. Jarvis allowed above league average offensive production in almost all scenarios when the game was within 4 runs, but when the game was 5+ runs up or down Jarvis held hitters to .182 batting average. If Ryne gets thrust back into the rotation and Bryce Jarvis is your inning eating long guy, that’s fine, but any kind of situation that matters I don’t want Bryce Jarvis out there.
PLAYERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR LATER IN THE SEASON….
RHP Juan Morillo
Juan Morillo has been sent to AAA Reno already, but has elite stuff and really impressed me this Spring. Morillo with the Dodgers AA squad in 2024 where he had a 4.76 ERA over 51 IP, 29 BB, 50K, but Juan Morillo throws GAS. Fangraphs has a 70 grade fastball attached to Morillo on the 80 grade scale, which is legit. This is the exact type of MiLB deal I like to see, major upside.
Andrew Saalfrank
It’s easy to forget how dominant he was late in 2023 and during the World Series run. Then Saalfrank lost his 2024 season due to gambling. Suspended on June 4th, I believe he cannot return until then in 2025. Saalfrank is sneaky old at 27, just a year younger than Kyle Nelson. Saalfrank flashed a truly elite breaking ball in 2023, but things quickly went south when Saalfrank didn’t make the 2024 Opening Day roster surprisingly. Saalfrank struggled in his 2 MLB appearances, and it felt like the Diamondbacks had to have known a suspension was coming because he went from the future LHP bullpen #1 to Reno real fast. Not an Opening Day option but a midseason one to keep an eye on.
Kyle Amendt
Kyle Amendt hit everyones radar last year when he struck out 75 batters in just 44 IP between AA/AAA last year with 2.86 ERA. Amendt doesn’t throw hard, but he may just be Josh Collmenter 2.0. Fangraphs did a deep dive on Kyle Amendt and his over the top delivery, but it’s a unique look that’s 180 from a Ryan Thompson and could be ready to appear in the D-Backs bullpen this year.
-Goldy Happens