D-Backs Offseason Preview
Decisions, Decisions....
The Arizona Diamondbacks last offseason had a team full of young, cheap exciting options and money to spend. This year, the young core is still here (and fairly cheap) but a lot of bills of coming due. This post is essentially for me (and you) to figure out where this roster stands entering the offseason.
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
1B Christian Walker
1B Josh Bell
RP Paul Sewald
INF Kevin Newman
The Diamondbacks only have 4 unrestricted free agents coming up this Winter. The conversation obviously starts with Christian Walker, who will enter his age 34 season in 2025. C Walk is Qualifying Offer eligible, which means the D-Backs can offer him a 1 year, $21.05M contract. C Walk can then either accept it and then become a free agent next year (QO can only be offered once) OR decline the QO and become a FA now. The catch with declining the QO is that IF Walker signs for more than $50M, the team that signs C Walk would lose their 2nd or 3rd highest draft pick, along with international pool $$$ in some cases too depending on payroll & market size. If the Diamondbacks QO C Walk and he signs for $50M+ elsewhere, the Diamondbacks gain a comp 1st round pick.
Christian Walker has gotten better each season and is now firmly in his prime. Per MLBTR, over the last 3 seasons only Goldschmidt, Olson, Harper & Freeman have posted a higher fWAR. C Walk is far and away the best defensive 1B in baseball too as he practically owns the NL 1B Gold Glove. I 100% think you offer the QO, and I think C Walk declines it. Keep in mind, the Diamondbacks can still sign C Walk post QO decline with no penalty. Being that Walker is 34, I’d love to see a 3 year deal. I can dream of 3/51 type deal (I’d imagine most clubs start to balk once the total $ hits $50M due to the QO rules). Much like Gurriel last year, C Walk is a leader in the clubhouse and it’s important to take care of those guys. He’s playing at his peak offensively & defensively, this is the type of guy you stretch a little to keep.
Sidenotes on C Walk:
If he re-signs, I promise to buy a $40 C Walk shersey, so keep in mind that revenue Mike Hazen.
Pete Alonso is also a free agent this year.
Ironically, we might get some help here from an old friend, Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals have already announced they are NOT bringing back Goldy (doing him a solid too by not offering the QO), so teams can pivot to a 1 year deal with Goldy instead of 3+ years and QO penalties with C Walk. 1B is a tricky position that usually doesn’t do super well in FA too.
Smaller names like Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, Wilmer Flores, Ryan O’Hearn are also FA 1B.
Lastly on C Walk, in the event he does leave, yes of course a Paul Goldschmidt reunion would be cool. Despite my online name though, I want C Walk extended BADLY. He’s an All Star caliber 1B in his prime who’s clearly one of this team’s leaders, pay the man and figure everything else out later.
Josh Bell is 100% walking in FA if C Walk re-signs. If he doesn’t, I really don’t want to see a Bell/Pavin 1B platoon. It kept the boat floating this season when C Walk got hurt, but if that’s the plan…. yikes. Both guys have their mini streaks, but over the course 162 that duo is not going to cut it at 1B.
I pray Paul Sewald has thrown his last pitch as a Diamondback…. and lastly Kevin Newman. I think he’ll be able to find a MLB guaranteed contract as he proved to be perfect bench infielder, but the Diamondbacks likely will try and give some home grown options a roster spot instead.
TEAM & PLAYER OPTIONS
SP Merrill Kelly $7M Team Option ($1M Team Buyout)
3B Eugenio Suarez $15M Team Option ($2M Team Buyout)
DH Joc Pederson $14M Mutual Option ($3M Team Buyout)
OF Randal Grichuk $6M Mutual Option ($500K Team Buyout)
RP Scott McGough $4M Mutual Option ($750K Team Buyout)
SP Jordan Montgomery $22.5M Player Option (Ugh)
Merrill Kelly will continue another season of being one of the biggest bargains in baseball. Eugenio is coming off a crazy season where he was one of the worst hitters in baseball for 3 months, then one of the best hitters in baseball the last 3 months. The org loves him, they’ll surely pick up the option even at $15M. Another reason for picking it up is with C Walk & Joc likely entering free agency, you gotta lock in something.
Joc Pederson RAKED all year. As I wrote about last offseason, Joc was the perfect signing and his bat fit this lineup’s needs. I think the Diamondbacks pick up Suarez’ option, QO C Walk (he declines) and then pick up Joc’s portion of the mutual option but Joc declines it too. Joc should have no issue getting a minimum $14M in free agency again, but likely gets something like 2/35+. Being a DH only caps his ceiling though, but I’m hoping the Diamondbacks can at least keep C Walk or Joc.
If you follow me on Twitter you know I love Joc, he was maybe my favorite Diamondback this year. I also really like Jordan Lawlar too…. and Ketel needs to DH more often. A 5 man infield of C Walk, Ketel, Perdomo, Lawlar, Suarez with the 5th guy having a spot to DH works for me. We saw in Aug/Sept when Ketel needed to DH, it bumped Joc or Grichuk off DH. It’s just really tricky having a DH only guy. Also, Grichuk raked!
If you pick up Grichuk’s option, you can run back the 2024 #1 in runs offense and give Grichuk and his .875 OPS more playing time too. In this scenario:
2 C’s, C Walk, Ketel, Perdomo, Lawlar, Suarez, Grichuk, Gurriel, Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas with 1 more open offensive spot. Works for me.
Scott McGough get ready to head back to Korea buddy. KBO pipeline worked great for Merrill Kelly, but Scott McGough is one of the all time worst D-Backs.
The last option to discuss is…. Jordan Montgomery. Here is what Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick had to say about Jordan Montgomery:
“Let me say it the best way I can say it: If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you’re talking to the guy that should be blamed because I brought it to their attention,” Kendrick said.
“I pushed for it. They agreed to it. It wasn’t in our game plan when he was signed right at the end of spring training, and looking back in hindsight, (it was) a horrible decision to have invested that money in a guy that performed as poorly as he did. It’s our biggest mistake this season from a talent standpoint, and I’m the perpetrator of that.”
YIKES! I was shocked when I heard this live on the radio. For an owner to be this candid about a mistake is cool, but he still has a $22.5M option that Jordan Montgomery is waiting to sign. With a 6.23 ERA in 2024 and a sad depressing statcast page that shows no sign of hope (please stop signing soft tossing lefties over 30 Mike Hazen… Mad Bum, E-Rod, Monty, just stop it) I don’t think there’s any path to trade him. Maybe you can just beg a team to take him for a small fraction of that $22.5?
Jordan Montgomery admitted that he never could shake his disappointment in not landing a long term deal and missing Spring Training. I worry that he won’t be able to shake Kendrick’s comments and the overall bad he’s been in Arizona too. With a full Spring Training he should be more in shape this year…. hopefully. I just think we’re stuck with him. He projects still as the long RP option behind Gallen, Kelly, E-Rod, Pfaadt & Nelson, which surely won’t make Montgomery happy either as he tries to fix his free agent stock. The reality of the situation is that Monty should worry about still be in the majors and not finding a multi-year deal.
EXTENSION CANDITATES
Zac Gallen- 1 year remaining until he is a free agent, but Gallen is a Boras client and he’s heading to free agency to test the market.
Gabriel Moreno- Diamondbacks fans fully understand how important Moreno is to this team. The pitching staff is drastically better when he’s behind the dish. Long term catcher deals are rare, but one we can look to is Keibert Ruiz’s. Before 2023, Ruiz signed a 8 year, $50M extension buying out 5 years of his “rookie contract” and 3 free agent seasons. There is a year 9 $12M team option and year 10 $14M team option too (no buy outs). Moreno has 4 years remaining on his “rookie” contract, but it’s at least worth considering.
Gabriel Moreno was actually a slightly better hitter in 2024 than 2023 (which surprised me looking at the stats. His wRC+ improved from 102 to 107, his OBP .339 to .353, BB% 7.6% to 11.7%, K% 19.7% to 14.8%. An elite defensive catcher who is an above average hitter at the catcher position who clearly has some untapped potential at the plate at just age 24, I think everyone would be thrilled if he signed the Ruiz extension.
DEPTH CHART RIGHT NOW:
C: Gabriel Moreno, Adrian Del Castillo, Jose Herrera
1B: Pavin Smith (C Walk QO eligible FA)
2B: Ketel Marte, Blaze Alexander
SS: Geraldo Perdomo, Jordan Lawlar (3B backup too)
3B: Eugenio Suarez ($15M team option)
LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Randal Grichuk ($6M option)
CF: Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas
RF: Corbin Carroll
(Joc Pederson $14M mutual option)
SP: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly ($7M team option) , Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson
Other SP: Jordan Montgomery ($22.5 player option), Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, Drey Jameson (full go for Spring Training off Tommy John), Blake Walston/Tommy Henry
Bullpen: Justin Martinez, AJ Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, Joe Mantiply
Other Bullpen: Andrew Saalfrank (gambling suspension is over), Kyle Nelson (coming off major shoulder surgery), Bryce Jarvis (elbow sprain, hopefully rehab goes well he was sneaky awesome), Brandon Hughes (non tender candidate), Kyle Amnedt (in the Arizona Fall League knocking on MLB door, like him a lot). Without a doubt the Diamondbacks will bring in A LOT of Spring Training non-roster invite RP’s….
So what did we learn?
The 2025 Diamondbacks are going to have a very similar roster to the 2024 Diamondbacks. If you’re like me and think the Diamondbacks had the talent to win the NL West last year but just couldn’t stay healthy (and had a certain manager that refused to make Justin Martinez the closer in April, May, June, July and then again in September could have saved the Diamondbacks from almost 10 blown late inning games)…. bringing almost all the fellas back in 2025 is a good idea.
Sidenote- I’m working on an article showing how you can rebuild a bullpen without spending big $$$, but I think if there’s an organization shift in pitching acquisition, just getting this team back to a middle of the pack pitching staff gets us back to the playoffs. I know everyone wants to spend money on the bullpen, but that has never worked for Hazen. Great bullpens are built in the shadows…. waiver claims, turning SP’s into RP’s, signing failed pitchers on the cheap and knowing HOW to fix them, this is how the Rays, Brewers, Tigers do it. But that’s an article for another day.
Ken Kendrick already said the Diamondbacks payroll will not being going down, if anything up (showing up to games matter! Kendrick said massive attendance increase is the direct reason for more payroll flexibility). Using Roster Resource & Spotrac with their arbitration projects, the Diamondbacks payroll is roughly $140M (this counts Geno, Grichuk, Kelly, Monty). Bring back Joc or C Walk you’re pushing $160M already. I really think it may be a quiet offseason, but that’s okay. This is a really good and talented team, and I think tearing it up or making drastic changes will just make things worse. Remember, this offense was #1 in runs last year. Just imagine if the Carroll, Alek, McCarthy trio can ever all hit at the same time. And again, I’m all in on 2025 Jordan Lawlar.
Just 5 days after the World Series is when free agency begins, so we’re closer than we think to moves happening. I hope you enjoyed this offseason preview and now have a good grasp of the Diamondbacks current roster. Plenty of Diamondbacks content coming this offseason, subscribe for free!!!
-Goldy Happens
Interesting