He's Just Not Into Us
Roki Sasaki is not going to be a Diamondback.... Sorry
Roki Sasaki is not going to sign with Diamondbacks.
There’s been a lot of Diamondback accounts and fans that have tried to drum up some Roki Sasaki to Arizona buzz, but sadly I’m here to tell you it’s not happening. 0% chance.
Who is Roki Sasaki?
Just one of the best pitching prospects to EVER come out of Japan. Roki Sasaki has a Paul Skenes-like arsenal topping out at 101 MPH (average fastball 96.9 MPH,would have been 7th highest for MLB starter in 2024). His filthiest pitch is a splitter that he is able to throw at different speeds. The slider & curveball are firmly his 3rd best offerings that are still a work in progress, but the fastball/splitter combo is nothing short of elite already.
Sasaki is just 23 and has already accomplished a lot. As you see below, Sasaki went pro at 19 and dominated every year so far in Japan.
You might remember Roki Sasaki from the 2023 World Baseball Classic, where he made 2 starts, went 7 2/3 innings with 11 K’s and lit up the radar gun peaking at 101.9 MPH (sheesh). Take a look for yourself with this Pitching Ninja clip.
The 1 red flag is his health the last 2 seasons. In 2023 he was limited with 15 games/91 IP due to a torn oblique (ouch). 2024’s injury was a little more concerning long term as it was declared ““a bout with shoulder fatigue,””. Granted Sasaki was just 21 and 22 and still has been around 100 IP 3 years in a row (similar to college SP workload), I’m not super concerned, but it is worth noting.
The reason this health red flag doesn’t make Roki Sasaki a risky signing is the uniqueness of his signing rules. MLB International Signings rules state that all free agents younger than 25 must sign amateur contracts. This means Sasaki will have to take the Shohei Ohtani path of signing an amateur contract subject to international bonus pool rules. What does this exactly mean? Well buckle up I’ll try to explain:
-Each MLB team is allotted a “pool” for international signings on 1/15 of each year.
-At this moment, most teams have used the majority of their 2024 pool. The Dodgers reportedly have the most remaining pool space at $2.5M for 2024.
-The Japanese prospects have their own wrinkle, a posting fee. Since these players are under contract to a Japanese team already, their teams can recoup a fee for a player leaving. Unfortunately for his current team, they will get just 20% check of his total guaranteed contract. For example the Dodgers had to write a check for $50M+ to sign Yamamoto to $325M contract (the % is tiered, not a flat 20%). Since Sasaki will be tied to international bonus pool system, his contract will be at least $315M less….
-The date Sasaki is actually posted will be huge, as teams have 45 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted. If those 45 days are before 1/15, Sasaki is looking at far less $ than if he signs after 1/15. Here are the bonus pools for 2025 period via MLB Trade Rumors:
-Teams can trade for up to 60% more international bonus pool space. Significant international pool space trades are pretty rare, but this is an extremely unique situation we haven’t seen since Ohtani, so maybe teams can get creative.
-Long story short, instead of Sasaki being able to go after a $325M type contract like Yamamoto, he can get a max of $10.1M if a team is able to to trade for it. Likely Sasaki will get $5-8M and then be subject to the MLB arbitration system just like Ohtani was.
So here is why the Diamondbacks aren’t signing Roki Sasaki…
The Dodgers
Roki Sasaki is obviously signing with the Dodgers. Why else would Sasaki come over this early? Sasaki played with Ohtani & Yamamoto in the World Baseball Classic. He can now team up with them.
The Money
Roki Sasaki CAN make up for a lot of that lost revenue by signing with the Dodgers now too. The Japanese super trio will rake in millions in advertising in the US and especially Japan. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Ohtani makes almost $100 million from endorsements alone annually. Sasaki can easily make a small chunk of that being a part of this Dodgers team.
The Fit
Sasaki has yet to throw a full season in pro ball, but nobody does on the Dodgers. This is a team coming off a year where every SP was injured, Ohtani will be coming off his 2nd major elbow surgery, so a 6 man rotation with plenty of rest/IL stints is a lock. Sasaki will be surrounded by fellow Japanese players to help his transition to the US at an early age of 23. I have to imagine the Dodgers have already set the Sasaki plan in place.
The Diamondbacks can’t even offer him the most money
If Sasaki did just want to cash out day 1 as much as possible, the Diamondbacks are $650k behind 8 teams already and on even playing ground with another 5.
The Diamondbacks lack infrastructure for Sasaki
I wasn’t sure how to word this, but what I’m getting at is there is zero ties to the Diamondbacks for Sasaki. There’s zero Japanese players or coaches on the roster. Phoenix isn’t exactly the big city cultural fit LA, SF, SEA, NYY is. I’ve seen a lot of people mention that Hazen has personally scouted Sasaki starts in person… but so has every MLB GM. The Diamondbacks should full court press throw everything they can at Sasaki to try and sign him, but again…
Jeff Passan today listed 8 teams in on Sasaki…. D-Backs were not listed.
He’s totally signing with the Dodgers
Sorry this post has been such a bummer. Maybe this will just end up being the greatest Goldy Curse of all time! On a positive note, I still 100% believe the D-Backs will bring back C Walk or Joc AND it’s looking more likely by the day that Jordan Montgomery will be traded!
Also, Roki Sasaki isn’t the only Japanese pitcher likely coming this Winter….
Tomoyuki Sugano
The year is 2017, the World Baseball Classic is on and Japan has 2 aces absolutely dealing. Future Met Kodai Senga and Tomoyuki Sugano tied for the tournament strikeout lead with 16. I remember watching the Japan/USA semi-final game where Sugano carved up US All-Star hitters in 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K on 3 H and 1 BB. I was convinced Sugano would be the next Tanaka to hit the MLB.
But then Sugano just never came over to US.
Sugano was posted before, in 2020-21 offseason coming off a 1.97 ERA season Sugano was not able to reach a deal with a MLB club and stayed in Japan. Sugano was 30 at the time, which was actually younger than when Mariners Hisashi Iwakuma (31) and Dodgers Hiroki Kuroda (33) came over to the US for example. Also, Sugano’s uncle, Tatsunori Hara, is the manager of his longtime team, the Yomiuri Giants.
So a mix of his family, his legendary ace status in Japan, being posted during a COVID/Lockout 2020-21 offseason is why at age 35 he is now trying to get to the MLB.
While I fully believe the Sasaki dream is dead, Sugano could be an interesting target for the Diamondbacks.
Mike Hazen has always tried to make splashes overseas. Yoshihisa Hirano was an older Japanese signing that paid off 2018. The Diamondbacks struck gold signing Merrill Kelly out of the KBO (not so much with Scott McGough though). Yu-Min Lin was a creative $525K signing out of Taiwan who’s knocking on the MLB door. If the Diamondbacks are able to unload Jordan Montgomery, Sugano could be an intriguing gamble to rebuild the rotation depth. A quick google search has placed a wide range of contract predictions. MLBTR my favorite resource projects a 1 year deal for Sugano worth $12M. Some other sites are projecting $15M+ for multiple years.
The 1 year prove it deal makes a lot of sense for Sugano at age 35. If it doesn’t work out, you can smoothly go back to Japan, but if it does work out you can REALLY cash in and select exactly where you want to go to finish out your career in the MLB.
Lastly on Saguno, the red flag with him that will likely scare off other teams but interest the Diamondbacks is his pitch arsenal and velocity. Saguno now throws around 92, but does have 6 pitches to play off his fastball. Per this full breakdown on Saguno from David Adler, Sugano mixes his pitches pretty evenly.
Mike Hazen has signed and traded for a long list of savvy vet pitchers who don’t light up the radar gun in Eduardo Rodriguez, Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Montgomery, Paul Sewald, Yoshi Hiraino, this offseason Seth Martinez, last season Dylan Floro…. a lot of teams are going to be worried about the soft tossing nature of Saguno, Dan Haren & Mike Hazen wont be. Just 111 K’s in 156.2 IP last year is scary, but the “stuff” is on par with Merrill Kelly and other FA signings in the past.
The Diamondbacks are mainly focused on 1B, bullpen and Joc Pederson, but if they do want a SP and once they lose out on Sasaki, Tomoyuki Sugano is probably going to be a Mike Hazen target and I’m really surprised no one is talking about him.
There is one more pitcher likely available this Winter from Japan in LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara. The Japanese outlet Tochu Sports listed the Blue Jays, Mets, Angels, Giants and Cubs as teams interested and actively scouting him. The 5’11 LHP is just 27, and scouting reports say he likely can battle for a back-end rotation spot. He doesn’t have the track record and pure stuff of Shota Imanaga, but could make for a depth swingman type role.
While I’m sorry to shoot down the Roki Sasaki dream, just keep an eye on Tomoyuki Sugano. In the words of Mike Hazen (probably), “You had me at 92 MPH fastball”.
-Goldy Happens