Let's Talk Cody Bellinger
The Former AZ Little League Hero is on the Trade Block
Yesterday Ken Rosenthal dropped the new rumor that “rival execs” believe the Cubs are trying to trade Cody Bellinger. With Christian Walker currently a highly in demand free agent, this news obviously sparked the interest of a lot of Diamondbacks fans.
Even though he was a long time Dodger, AZ fans have always really liked Cody Bellinger. Most people know his ties to the Valley as he was born in Scottsdale, went to Hamilton HS in Chandler and went to the Little League World Series representing AZ too.
Cody Bellinger opted into year 2 of his creative 3 year player option with the Cubs that he signed last offseason. This means Belli gets $27.5M in 2025, then has another player option for 2026 where he can take $25M or $5M player option buy out and become a free agent. This means the Cubs are on the hook for a minimum $32.5M, and a possible maximum of $52.5M depending on if Bellinger opts in to 2026.
Cody Bellinger had a good, not great, 2024 season. We’ll dive into that later, but the Cubs agenda for wanting to trade Cody Bellinger is that they want to re-allocate that chunk of payroll elsewhere. Michael Busch (1B) & Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) had strong rookie seasons, Ian Happ (LF) is a Cub staple (who also has a no trade clause), Seiya Suzuki (RF/DH) is a great hitter who just needs to stay healthy. The Cubs also have 2 exciting OF prospects in Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie who are now on the 40 man roster. Also, the Cubs have been tied to OF/DH Anthony Santander who as a switch hitter could make the Cubs lineup less lefty heavy (Bellinger, Busch, PCA all lefties).
So for the Diamondbacks, obviously their main goal is to re-sign Christian Walker, but the Yankees are targeting him, Nationals have a lot of open payroll and love former D-Backs and if Alonso doesn’t go back to the Mets…. so in the event C Walk does walk, Hazen & the Diamondbacks at least make a call to their old Red Sox friend Jed Hoyer on Bellinger.
Like I said earlier, Cody Bellinger was good not great in 2024. Ending the year with 18 HR, 9 SB, .266 AVG, .751 OPS, Bellinger took a step back from his strong 2023 season.
From fantasy baseball and always looking to stream SP’s, I noticed Wrigley Field was a big time pitcher park in 2024. According to STATCAST, Wrigley Field has a 3 year rolling average hitting park factor of 97 in 2024 (100 is league average), but dropped down to a 91 in 2024 alone (only Seattle’s ballpark was worse). Wrigley Field’s pitcher friendly-ness in 2024 reflected in Bellinger’s home/road splits below:
Belli was also bad during the day and at Wrigley… which is a bad combo for a Cub as they play 81 games a year at Wrigley and by far the most day games in baseball Bellinger’s .798 road OPS, .867 at night is definitely intriguing to teams looking to trade for Cody Bellinger.
Defensively, Bellinger has always graded out well in the OF. He can still play league average CF, can definitely handle a corner OF above average for a couple more years (turning 30 this year), but despite being a part time 1B in every MLB season, he’s been bad to average at 1B. Are the Diamondbacks willing to go from THE best 1B in baseball to a below average one?
The counter to that is what if Bellinger focused ONLY on 1B? He’s always been an OF who also plays 1B part time. In 554.1 innings at 1B as a Cub, Bellinger has posted +1 Outs Above Average at 1B, so his 1B glove has been more consistent than his Dodger days.
The biggest connection for the Cubs & Diamondbacks here is the Jordan Montgomery connection. The Diamondbacks have been heavily rumored to be shopping Montgomery and his $22.5M 2025 salary. The Diamondbacks have 5 good starters already in Gallen, Kelly, E-Rod, Nelson & Pfaadt. Jordan Montgomery proved he couldn’t handle the entire MLB wisely not paying him anything close to what he thought he deserved, and being sent back to bullpen for a team whose owner publicly roster him isn’t going to bounce him back.
The Cubs are looking for veteran starting pitching behind Shota Imagana, Justin Steele & Jameson Taillon. The Cubs also have had no problem acquiring the softer throwing pitchers. So the connection here is Cubs take Montgomery’s 1/22.5 and clear the books of salary for sure in 2026 , DBacks take Bellinger’s $32.5M guaranteed (and potential 2nd year at $25M) and replace fan favorite C Walk with a player the fans will instantly love too. Maybe one team eats a little money or throws in a prospect, but the bones are here for a match.
Just a couple more Cody Bellinger notes I want to add.
-Bellinger turns 30 in July, so he’s still in his prime.
-In 200 PA’s at Chase Field he has 7 HR, 24 RBI, .740 OPS
-Bellinger already has declined the qualifying offer in his career, so if he were to ball out and opt out after 2025, we can’t offer him the QO.
So at the end of the day, here is my rankings of what I want to happen:
Re-sign C Walk of course! 3 year deal, $60M+ likely, you know he’s a leader, he’s gotten better each season at the plate, he’s THE best 1B in the league, take care of your own guys at 3 years $18-23M a year especially if you can unload a lot of Montgomery $, pay the man.
If C Walk leaves (you do get a 1st round comp pick if he signs for $50M+), then I’d choose Bellinger for Montgomery swap 2nd. Add just $5M of salary to the 2025 payroll, I think you’re still in play here for Joc too in the 2/30 range.
If C Walk leaves and the Cubs decide to keep Bellinger, now you call up old friend Paul Goldschmidt (after re-signing Joc as priority #1) and offer 1/10-ish. I’ll write more about Goldy soon, but there’s an argument to be made Carlos Santana is a better 1B option, but Goldy coming home would be pretty cool as long as it’s a 1 year deal.
Doomsday, C Walk goes to the Dodgers, Bellinger goes to the Dodgers, Goldy goes to the Dodgers, Joc goes to the Dodgers, Pavin Smith everyday 1B and I just find a new hobby and get really into knitting or bird watching.
-Goldy Happens