During the All Star Break, the MLB sneaked in their draft in one of the most weirdly timed events of the year. Why the MLB doesn’t do the draft Wednesday and Thursday AFTER the All-Star Game when theres ZERO baseball or any sports on will always confuse me. Once again, I’m here for hire as scheduling consult whenever you’re ready Rob Manfred.
The Arizona Diamondbacks had a perfect storm of event that gave them 3 top 35 picks despite going to the World Series. Pick 29 was their original pick, 31 was awarded for Corbin Carroll winning ROY and pick 35 came via Competitive Balance Pool. The bottom 10 teams in the MLB in either/both market size and/or total revenue are awarded Competitive Balance picks. Since the Diamondbacks were bottom 10 in revenue for 2022 season, they stayed in the Competitive Balance pool. You then alternate years between A & B, A picks fall between 1st and 2nd round, B picks fall between 2nd and 3rd round.
Other than obviously having more higher picks, the biggest advantage actually comes from having an increased draft pool. Since your entire draft pool shares a total $$$ amount, the Diamondbacks will have extra flexibility in the draft to take players with a higher asking price. For example, despite the Diamondbacks going to the World Series and picking 29th, they actually have the 10th biggest spending pool ($12,662,000). In comparison, the Rangers with pick 30 with no extra picks have a $6,997,900 spending pool.
So here’s a take, I believe the MLB Draft mock drafts are more important than any other sport.
The reason why is in the MLB Draft, each pick has a slot value, but your only restriction is being tied to the TOTAL bonus pool (Bonus pool applies to first 10 rounds, rounds 11-20 you can pay up to $150K per player, any amount over than counts against your bonus pool). This differs from the NBA/NFL were whatever pick you are drafted, you’re assigned an amount and that’s it.
This causes MLB teams to have to pre-draft negotiate deals with players, and causes the draft to be less of a best player available deal and more of a strategy game, almost like a fantasy sports auction draft.
With so much pre-draft negotiation, really good reporters at MLB Pipeline, ESPN, Baseball America can pick up rumors that hold more weight since teams have to do the math before selecting players. This is also how day 2 and 3 use 1-2 minute clocks and they zoom through the remaining 20 rounds quickly.
Lastly, don’t get hung up on positions during the MLB Draft. Friendly reminder, every year I see people post the “why are we drafting another OF” and “ we need _______ position”. Friendly reminder that in the MLB Draft, no other sport has less players hit. You absolutely should not draft based on any position preference. Look at the Orioles, they draft exclusively LH hitting shortstops and they all find their way to other positions. Justin Upton was a HS SS for example… these kids are studs, of course they all play SS or CF in HS.
Pitchers are extremely risky bets too. Just take a look at how the Angels all pitcher draft went in 2021…
ROUND 1, PICK 29 - Slade Caldwell, OF, HS (AR)
If it ain’t broke, dont fix it. The Diamondbacks have struck gold developing fast, short, LH OF’s like Corbin Carroll, Daulton Varsho, Dominic Fletcher (what a great sell high) and Alek Thomas (not short, but Jake McCarthy fits this mold too).
Slade Caldwell is reportedly closer to 5’6 than 5’9 as some report, but is scouted as a “an advanced hitter with a mature approach who makes consistent line-drive contact to all fields” by MLB Pipeline. With plus speed, he’s projected to have no problem staying in CF.
Every website you look at, they had Slade from the teens to mid 20’s in rankings, meaning the Diamondbacks got a “steal” here. Slade’s “hit” tool and bat to ball skills are a +, I’d consider him having a high floor despite being a HS kid. While it feels like the Diamondbacks are drafting what they have a lot of already, I view it as drafting a skill set that thrives in the Diamondbacks player development system.
ROUND 1-PPI, PICK 31 - Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Waldschmidt Happens!
As you can tell by mid-draft tweet attempt at the Gambo 5, I nailed the Caldwell & Waldschmidt pick predictions. I didn’t think they would fall to 29 & 31, but I’m happy they did. The Diamondbacks were mocked to take one of the top 2 catchers, Walker Janek & Malcolm Moore, but they went 28 & 30, so that locked the Diamondbacks in at OF with these picks.
For the record, I LOVE Janek as he’s an athletic pure catcher with pop, where Moore I’m not sure he sticks at C, but rakes as a LH bat. Walker Janek is going to make it to the show quickly for the Astros though and be a really solid MLB catcher for awhile.
Back to Ryan Waldschmidt, he was ranked 23rd by MLB pipeline but 11th by both Baseball America and one of my favorite draft analyst Joe Doyle of Super Star Series. A RH OF bat, Ryan Waldschmidt had a massive season w/ 14 HR 1.079 OPS 25 SB in his 1st year back from a torn ACL. A young Randal Grichuk is an easy comp for me with the power/speed combo, but Waldschmidt strikes out less which a plus. MLB pipeline notes “Few players in this Draft can match Waldschmidt's ability to make contact, avoid chasing pitches and produce high exit velocities”.
The Kentucky Wildcat falling to 31 was a surprise by most and Mike Hazen has to be thrilled with this get.
Round 1-Comp A, Pick 35 - JD Dix, SS, HS (WI)
Take a look at this video and tell me JD Dix’s swing is IDENTICAL to Geraldo Perdomo’s.
The Diamondbacks got “values” at 29/31, so they turned to HS route again with SS JD Dix. At 6’2 and potentially taller in a year, he looks like a future 3B to me (or a tall 2B) as his swing/glove work looks a little stiff for a SS. Ranked 75-125 range by most, I credit that to a should injury last year during the summer tourneys that delayed his senior season and may have hindered his performance. As a Wisconsin HS bat, they obviously start their season later and it takes awhile for the weather to warm up.
Cold weather HS kids are tricky because they don’t play as much baseball as an Arizona or Florida kid. In a real glass half empty debate, this either means there’s a lot of upside or their game isn’t developed enough. JD Dix being from WI & injured last year, the Diamondbacks obviously think there’s potential. Keep in mind recent HS early picks, Varsho was from Wisconsin, Carroll - Washington, Alek Thomas - Chicago, AJ Vukovich - Wisconsin, so Mike Hazen must have a great scout in the upper Midwest.
Round 2, Pick 64 - Ivan Luciano, C, HS El Shaddai Christian Academy (PR)
This pick definitely came as a surprise to me. Ever since Hazen traded for Gabriel Moreno, the Diamondbacks have made a real effort to try and acquire LH hitting catchers. Luciano is still just 17 as of draft day and hits lefty. Luciano reportedly had a strong MLB combine showing off advanced defense for being 17, and great contact skills with the bat.
Luciano has a slot value of $1.32M and I doubt he gets that full amount. I’d like to see more upside pick in the 2nd round, but Luciano does have a high floor toolset. Nice bonus note, he has worked directly with Yadier Molina in his training.
Adrian Del Castillo has burst onto the scene this year raking in Reno, but isn’t regarded as a great defensive catcher. Overall, the catcher depth for the Diamondbacks farm system is on the weak side, so maybe an all around solid catcher prospect like Luciano can make a real impact.
Round 3, Pick 102 - Daniel Eagen, RHP, Presbyterian College (SC)
First pitcher the Diamondbacks select is a 6’4 RHP in Daniel Eagen. The first 2 season of his college career were a disaster as he battled several injuries and wasn’t good when he was on the hill. 2024 Eagen stayed healthy and impressed with 122 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. Ranked in the 75-100 range by most, Eagen has a fastball/curveball 1-2 punch that was electric last season.
Daniel Eagen having 2 + pitches makes him an obvious reliever candidate, on the flip side since he’s had just 1 full season there hasn’t been much time to develop his slider or his rarely used change-up. There’s a good blend of elite production last year with projection and size with Eagen.
Round 4, Pick 132 - Tytus Cissell, SS, HS (MO)
Tytus Cissell is a really interesting HS draft pick. The switch hitting SS with plus speed has reportedly performed well in tournaments against good pitching. At 6’2, he has great speed and arm strength for the OF if his glove doesn’t improve at SS. This is another good time to point out that HS positions really don’t matter, as Cissell has played SS in HS, but easily could play 2B, has the arm for 3B and all the tools for the entire OF.
The Diamondbacks will need to sign away Cissell from Mizzou, but being a 4th round pick I’d imagine they have something close agreed to.
Round 5, Pick 164 - Connor Foley, RHP, Indiana
Connor Foley signed today over slot for $1 million (slot was $392,300). Ranked 106 by MLB Pipeline, Foley became a full time starter in 2024 and was able to throw 94/95 consistently while touching 99 at times. Foley is 6’5, 235, former HS TE and is extremely athletic for his size. Unlike most prospects, he has great feel and movement on his change-up, as the slider is still a work in progress.
MLB Pipeline noted that Foley was able to maintain his velo deep into games. I think his high price tag dropped him from the 3rd round range to 5th, which the Diamondbacks and their large bonus pool benefit from.
Round 6, Pick 194 - Mason Marriott, RHP, Baylor
I honestly expect Mason Marriott to sign for less than $75k. This pick comes with $305K value, so I think the Diamondbacks are looking to use this money elsewhere (Foley went overslot, Cissell probably does too for example).
Mason Marriott in 3 years at Baylor never had a ERA under 5.94, 8.4 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 isn’t good, he’s just 6 feet tall. Baylor used him as a SP only the last 2 seasons, so maybe they see some upside moving Marriott to the bullpen? Watching the video of him pitching I could find online, he sits low 90’s but the change-up was pretty impressive at a mid 80’s velo too. The optimistic view here is he’s a $$$ savings type deal that could thrive in a move to the bullpen.
Round 7, Pick 224 - Luke Craig, LHP, UNC Wilmington
Luke Craig will be senior college signee that likely will be underslot. The 1st LHP for the Diamondbacks Draft, the 6’2 RP is a sidearmer and balled out with 55 IP, 76 K’s this year. Our friends at DBacksStatsInfo on Twitter noted that he recorded a K in 24/28 games this year. Craig throws mind 90’s and like most sidearmers he has a strong sweeper. Craig turns 23 in a couple weeks and already signed his contract, though the figure hasn’t been reported yet.
Round 8, Pick 254 - Travis Garnett, LHP, William & Mary
Another lefty! Travis Garnett is also a RP, but stands at 6’6 and does a great job at generating whiffs as he had 41 Ks in 25 IP this year. At 6’6, he creates a weird angle on his fastball that generated a whiff rate of 35 percent this season. Garnett’s heater sits mid 90’s.
Unlike Marriott & Craig, Travis Garnett is ranked at some publications. Joe Doyle at Super Star Series (great twitter follow), has him 364 and noted “Garnett throws an extremely firm slider with short two-plane tilt, up to 92 and consistently 87-88 mph. That breaker produced a 50 percent whiff rate”. Travis Garnett is a really exciting LHP RP prospect with big time stuff.
Round 9, Pick 284 - Ben McLaughlin, 3B, Arkansas
McLaughlin is a senior signing coming off a solid senior year at Arkansas where he had 9 HR, .937 OPS in the SEC. McLaughlin is 6’3 3B who hits lefty and walked 50 times this year vs just 30 K’s. I like that Ben McLaughlin played 2 years JUCO, then transferred to a powerhouse like Arkansas and had success in the SEC. Being able to handle that jump is impressive and is a good sign for his next jump to the minors.
Round 10, Pick 314 - Trent Youngblood, OF, Transylvania University
Yes, a kid named Trent YOUNGBLOOD went to a school called TRANSYLVANIA University. When I first saw his draft tweet, I thought it was a joke. The 5’10 part time middle infielder mostly outfielder absolutely raked at Transylvania U having an OPS over 1.000 all 4 seasons there. His career 1.224 OPS dropped to .883 in Summer League play, but Youngblood is really athletic, has a sweet LH swing and an awesome name.
PLEASE consider taking a look at MLB Pipeline as they’ve done a great job expanding their draft/prospect coverage. I really like the work over at Super Star Series with Joe Doyle on twitter being the lead follow.
I’ll be posting Rounds 11-20 later this week!
-Goldy Happens