The Haters Guide to the Dodgers Offseason

This is fine

Unless you live under a rock, the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani have rattled MLB fans everywhere by agreeing to a unique 10 year, $700M deal that pays Ohtani just $2M in cash 2024-33 and $68M a year in deferred (interest free) payments 2034-43. This makes the present day value roughly $460M, so the Dodgers take a $46M hit vs $70M hit on the CBT (Collective Bargaining Tax).

Instantly the Dodgers have already turned around and traded RHP SP Ryan Pepiot and OF Jonny Deluca for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. Glasnow who is due $25M in 2024, signed a 4 year $110M extension with another dual team/player option for 2029. Margot himself makes $10M in 2024 and has a mutual option in 2025 for $12M with a $2M buyout.

These Dodger moves have NL West fans angry and even have teams like the Giants panicking and spending $132M on KBO players like Jung-Hoo Lee (Lee had 6 HR and 6 SB last season in the KBO and has 2 seasons over 7 HR, also reports to maybe be able to stay in CF but probably slides to LF/RF). I am here to tell you not so fast friends… the Dodgers offseason isn’t a doomsday scenario come true like people think.

1 Let’s talk Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is the best player in baseball. There will never be a player who can be this elite at both hitting and pitching ever again. The Dodgers will easily make over $460M in new revenue by signing Ohtani which from a business prospective takes all the risk out of this deal. The MLB has systems in play designed to make teams pay into escrow accounts on massive and deferred deals to ensure players get paid. While Ohtani gets $2M in cash each year for 10 years, the Dodgers have a $46M cap hit and have to pay significant chunks of cash for later too. All of this makes me think that the deferred money and perceived saving the Dodgers are getting is considerably less than originally thought.

Shohei Ohtani turns 30 in July and is coming off his 2nd Tommy John surgery. Best case scenario is that Shohei Ohtani returns to the rotation in 2025, but what does that year 1 workload look like? We’re starting to enter a new age of 2nd Tommy John SP’s making it back to the mound in SP roles with Nathan Eovaldi sustaining success. Jameson Taillon getting the largest 2nd TJ contract ever at 4 years, $68M (Taillon did have a brutal 4.84 ERA year 1 with the Cubs). Hyun-Jin Ryu returned last season to post a 3.46 ERA in 11 GS but had a career low 6.6 K/9. Walker Buehler will be an interesting test case as he returns from his 2nd Tommy John this season. Buehler had electric stuff on Ohtani’s level too.

It’s a long and difficult road for Shohei Ohtani and his 2nd Tommy John surgery. He’s done the rehabbing while still being a MLB DH everyday before, but now 30 at what point does Ohtani stop defying what we think is possible? Taillon and Ryu are smoother and less “stuff” reliant, where Ohtani (and Buehler) are full throttle 100% effort style pitchers. I believe theres a window for Ohtani to have 2-3 really strong starting pitching seasons, but really any production on the mound should be viewed as a bonus.

One last Shohei Ohtani Tommy John note. Ohtani did play through Tommy John as a DH in 2019 after his October 2018 Tommy John, but the offensive stats were good not elite. He hit .286/.343/.505 with 18 homers and 62 RBIs in 106 games as his season was cut short with a knee injury. On the mound he only appeared in 2 games, gave up 7 runs in 1.2 IP with 8 walks and the Angels shut him down for the year with new elbow discomfort. 2020 the wheels really fell off as he returned to the mound and his bat struggled mightily to .657 OPS, .190 AVG in 44 games. I’m just pointing out what Ohtani is attempting to do is extremely difficult and people really forget it didn’t go well the first time.

In the post steroid era, it’s also worth looking at hitters in their 30’s. As average pitching velocities go up, we’re seeing less hitters able to be productive in their mid to late 30’s. In Ohtani’s 3 year historic hitting run 2021-23 he posted OPS of .964, .875, 1.066. Just 2 players 34 or older in 2023 had an OPS over .800 (Justin Turner, Paul Goldschmidt) and 2 in 2022 (Jose Abreu & Paul Goldschmidt). Using .875 OPS as the cut off, just 2022 MVP Paul Goldschmidt beat that mark at .921 OPS. Ohtani’s final 6 years of his deal will be age 34-39.

2 Lets talk Tyler Glasnow

I’m just going to list facts first:

• 2023 Tyler Glasnow made 21 starts & threw 120 innings.

• Before 2023 Tyler Glasnow failed to make more than MLB 13 starts in a season.

• Tyler Glasnow has a career 5.72 ERA in 10 postseason starts.

• Tyler Glasnow now will make $25M in 2024, $27.5M a year 2025-28, 2029 $30M team option, $20M player option.

• Tyler Glasnow also turns 30 this season.

Tyler Glasnow doesnt have 1 full healthy season, and now entering his 30’s the age can’t help either. The Rays and Dodgers both have a Tommy John and general pitcher injury problem too. Both team get the best production possible from their pitchers, but it comes at a cost. Kershaw was often injured and had shoulder surgery this winter. Buehler (and now Ohtani) are coming off their 2nd Tommy John, Dustin May had Tommy John last year and a foreman flexor tendon surgery this year. Tony Gonsolin may miss all of 2024 with Tommy John too. The Rays on the other hand currently have 3 prominent starters on Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs all are expected to miss 2024 with arm injuries too.

Ryan Pepiot, the Rays return along with Jonny Deluca, is a pitcher I really like too. Pepiot has had a really smooth debut with a 2.76 ERA through 78.1 MLB innings. There’s value in Ryan Pepiot (who is under team control for 5 more years) in a rotation that has 3 elite pitchers in Ohtani, Buehler, and likely a midseason Kershaw return battling injuries.

Don’t get me wrong in 2024 I’d rather have Glasnow than Pepiot, but Pepiot going to the Rays pitching factory and being young and affordable mixed with Glasnow missing 40-60% of every single MLB season in his career, the Rays could be laughing at this deal in July.

3 Lets talk about the other guys

Freddie Freeman turns 35 this September with 4 years left on his deal. Mookie Betts turns 32 next October with 9 years left on his deal. Ohtani and Glasnow are 30, Kershaw (who I really think is a lock to re-sign in LA and return midseason) is 36 in March. Every young pitcher the Dodgers have had Tommy John and is trying to return from it with the exception of Bobby Miller. The Dodgers need a lot of rehabs to go right + their already aging core to not have a drop off. In modern baseball without steroids hitters are just falling off earlier than they used to. Age 34 has become a huge drop off year, and really over 30 players in general seem to lose a step. A team like the Braves have such an exciting young core of several under 30 stars where the Dodgers have almost exclusively over 30 core.

4 Does Shohei Ohtani make the Dodgers THAT much better?

The Dodgers are so good at player development and always will be able to spend at ton of the MLB levels so they may win every division title forever. It’s important to remember that the cost of the Dodgers getting Ohtani is the $700M but also Trea Turner and or World Series MVP Corey Seager. When you factor in both players play a premium position like shortstop and hit at a high level the last couple years, the prior year Dodger teams paid a penalty for Ohtani. DH is now locked down for the next decade, so MAx Muncy and Will Smith can no longer take AB’s there. That’s fine when Ohtani is in his prime, but it’s a long 10 years ahead.

And lastly…

5 Remember when Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman went 1-21 in the 2023 NLDS.

Remember when Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman went 1-21 in the 2023 NLDS.

Ultimately for the Dodgers, there’s no risk in the Shohei Ohtani signing. The biggest player in the MLB now will be in a premiere organization and the MLB will advertise the Dodgers like the early 2000 Yankees. My point is simply that I don’t know if this makes the Dodgers the World Series lock everyone thinks they are. The Dodgers have a lot of red flags they need to overcome when you look closer. Never forget, baseball’s weird. Diamondbacks won the National League, the Rangers took on Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, got just about zero playoff production from them and won the World Series. Constructing a team for the regular season vs the playoffs are two different things. The 2024 Dodgers will be a wagon in the regular season like always, but let’s not crown the Dodgers as shoe-in peak Warriors or Patriots champion favorites… there’s a lot of ball left to play.

-@GoldyHappens