The LHP Run is Over, Blaze & The Bullpen

Off Day Thoughts: 4/11

Moving forward, my plan to post Diamondbacks round up style articles on off days. Things move so quickly with games everyday, so off days are the only chance I get to write something and not have it be almost instantly outdated.

I want to start this post by just taking a second to appreciate how fun it is to have a competitive baseball team. Everyday is a rollercoaster ride, but this team has everyone’s attention and the spotlight on the D-Backs is great.

Through 13 games, the rotation has been awesome, the bullpen has been a disaster, and the offense has just been weird…

I think the insane run of LHP starters the D-Backs have faced has been the cause of the strange season the offense has had.

COL: Freeland & Gomber (both series)

NYY: Cortes & Rodon

ATL: Fried & Strider

8 of the first 13 games for the D-Backs have been against LHP, which has been good for some and bad for others. This homestand the Diamondbacks are projected to face 1 lefty per series (Matz Friday, Wicks Wednesday), so at last a 4 game stretch vs RHP is coming up.

1. CORBIN CARROLL: Corbin Carroll has gotten off to a slow start (.224/.333/.327 with .660 OPS). Strangely, Carroll has hit better vs LHP anyways in a small sample size.

As you can see from his 2023 splits, Carroll does more damage vs RHP historically. The inconsistent AB’s vs RHP may cause Carroll to be more locked into the less aggressive vs LHP approach. Also from the eye test, Carroll’s timing in the home stand was just off, where at least at Coors Field he looked more comfortable and hit a HR + a couple balls to the warning track. The Corbin Carroll breakout is coming….

2. JOC PEDERSON: With just 5 games through 2 weeks vs RHP starting pitching, it’s hard for Joc Pederson to get going. Throw out Joc’s debut where he had 4 hits that were debatably all errors by the Rockies, he’s 3-15 (singles) with 6 walks. Joc is getting on base at a high clip, but he hasn’t made hard contact yet outside his first game. It’s worth noting that Joc hasn’t started back to back games in the month of April yet, so ideally he gets 4 straight starts this homestand and can get in a groove.

3. TUCKER BARNHART: So far this season, Barnhart has caught the last game of every series. This means Barnhart has faced 3 straight LHP, but has done okay going 2 for 8 with a SAC bunt and just 2 K’s. Barnhart had a strong Spring and has looked solid at the plate even vs all these lefties. As for Gabriel Moreno, all his stats were looking bad before the 4 hit breakout Tuesday. In 2023, Moreno slashed an elite .352/.371/.528 vs LHP, so maybe Torey should consider shuffling around the Barnhart breaks for Moreno to get more LHP AB’s.

4. JAKE MCCARTHY: The design of the Diamondbacks and all their lefties means Jake McCarthy is going face LHP in order to get AB’s, and he’s been taking advantage of it. 4 for 7 with a walk & double vs LHP this year. The 2-15 vs RHP though will need to improve this homestand, but with Thomas out McCarthy is getting AB’s this week, which will be a massive opportunity for him.

5. THE RH BATS LOVE THIS LHP RUN: Ketel, Lourdes, C Walk and Eugenio Suarez have LOVED this LHP run. 5 of 6 extra base hits for Ketel Marte have come vs LHP. 2 of 3 homers for Lourdes Gurriel have come vs LHP, including an insane 1.010 OPS vs LHP (26 PA vs LHP, 31 PA vs RHP). Christian Walker is hitting .381 vs LHP with .445 OBP. Suarez is hitting .389 with a 1.111 OPS vs LHP too. This group of 4 has done a lot of damage vs LHP, fixing the struggles the 2023 Diamondbacks had.

Blaze Alexander is raking…. but the glove has been a major disappointment.

Blaze Alexander is hitting far better than anyone could have expected. I’ve been a massive Blaze fan this Spring, and despite his awful glove work at SS, I’m thrilled with what we’re seeing so far. From our friends at DbacksStatsInfo on Twitter (please follow this account, it’s the best DBacks account out there right now)

The Diamondbacks haven’t had an elite hitting SS in at least a decade. Ahmed & Perdomo are elite defenders, but they’re 9 hole type hitters. That duo has handled SS every season besides 2017 when Ahmed got hurt and mostly pre-breakout speed first Ketel got time at SS. 2013-2016 saw Didi, Chris Owings, and Nick Ahmed rotate through SS with bad to league average offensive production. This allows me to give a shoutout to one of my favorite Diamondbacks ever in Stephen Drew, who is wildly under-appreciated. 3 elite over .800 OPS season, 3 solid seasons around them, steady defender at SS, but still this was 2006-11… which is a very long time ago now.

I think Blaze Alexander’s bat is legit, and this isn’t a Perdomo vs Blaze debate as they both can find playing time. With a projected 6-8 week recovery for Perdomo and Jordan Lawlar’s thumb surgery, I love that Torey is sticking with Blaze at SS. It’s early April, the Diamondbacks can afford to let Blaze work out mistakes at SS now, which will benefit us late in the season.

One last Blaze note: Blaze had a .397 OBP and .813 OPS vs RHP in the 2023 minors, so he doesn’t need to be platooned. The bat is legit folks.

Zac Gallen & Merrill Kelly are so awesome.

Just want to give our aces a deserved shoutout.

Lastly, let’s talk about the bullpen.

It’s been bad, but maybe not as bad as think. Somehow, the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA is 11th at 3.56! WHIP is 8th best in MLB at 1.17. The Paul Sewald injury threw a wrench into the bullpen hierarchy, but there’s been a new one formed the last 2 games.

Closer: Kevin Ginkel - White Jose Valverde… it’s shaky everytime, but the full picture is better than I would have guessed. 13.5 K/9, 3.37 ERA, back to back successful saves at Coors Field, after a delayed start to Spring Training, he’s going to be fine.

Ryan Thompson is this team’s Brad Ziegler. So consistent and reliable, hands down our best RP, and he’s being used in high level pre-closer roles successfully. He’s the heart and soul of this bullpen.

Kyle Nelson has SHOCKED me this spring. I literally wrote him off in an article this offseason and boy did he write back. 7 scoreless innings, which paired with Everyday Joe Mantiply getting back on track and being solid again, the lefties are getting the job done.

The Diamondbacks bullpen is 5 strong, with the long guy being Jarvis (encouraging outing vs COL on Wednesday, but that job will eventually be Henry’s when Montgomery returns then Ryne Nelson’s when E-Rod returns). The reason why the Diamondbacks bullpen feels way worse than the stats suggest is because McGough, Castro and Frias have been terrible while appearing in high leverage spots. Here is how I would handle the trio.

1. Send down Luis Frias. he deserved a shot to start the season as people forget he was good last year (1.35 ERA in 7 playoff games, 0.77 ERA in 12 Sept games). Frias just hasn’t carried it over to 2024 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.68 WHIP. Frias was granted an extra option year this offseason, meaning the Diamondbacks can send him down to AAA while leaving him on the 40 man roster. Justin Martinez is DEALING in AAA Reno right now, I think that’s a swap that makes a lot of sense to make.

   

   2. At all costs, use McGough & Castro in low leverage spots only. Scott McGough has been one of the last men standing in extra innings this yer twice, but has otherwise already not been used in high leverage spots. The Baseball Savant page for Crime Dog is really discouraging though.

McGough makes $3M guaranteed this year and I think he’s first in line over Castro to get DFA and likely optioned to AAA Reno and goes unclaimed on waivers. The splitter is still nasty, but there’s truly nothing else working for McGough. As for Miguel Castro, the stuff a lot better.

At least with Miguel Castro, he’s going to be either absolutely elite or terrible. 12 scoreless outing in September last year with a 13.1 K/9 was truly shocking.

To recap, there’s 4 RP’s in the Diamondbacks bullpen that have been good to great. I would swap out Frias for Martinez today. Miguel Castro you just have to ride out the rollercoaster. Scott McGough though, I just don’t think a turnaround is coming. While Martinez is the only RP that I think deserves a MLB spot ASAP, the Diamondbacks will definitely be trading for RP’s this year + Montgomery & E-Rod will bump Nelson & Henry to the bullpen or AAA too, so McGough’s days may be limited.

-Goldy Happens