The Zac Gallen Problem
Friday Column Volume 1
Zac Gallen is this era’s Justin Upton.
Justin Upton burst on the scene as the 1st overall pick and top Diamondbacks prospect and quickly became an All Star in 2009 and MVP candidate in 2011.
Zac Gallen was acquired in a wild 1 for 1 swap with then top prospect Jazz Chisholm. Gallen also quickly had success posting a 2.75 ERA in 2020, 2.54 ERA in 2022 while being the Cy Young hunt & started the 2023 All Star Game.
Early successes raised the bar for both players as Justin Upton felt like he was on his way to becoming a superstar while Zac Gallen was ready to become an ace. Then things got complicated for both.
For Zac Gallen who was the 2023 ASG starter, he was fine in the playoffs overall but horrible in the NLCS as Merrill Kelly became the “Ace” and even Brandon Pfaadt felt more like the #2 guy. (Game 7 of the NLCS, never forgot).
While 2023 playoffs was when the tides turned for Gallen, it was 2012 after the 2011 ASG appearance where J-Up’s stock took a dive too. Upton followed up a MVP conversation 2011 where he posted a 5.5 WAR, 31 HR, 21 SB season with a 2.4 WAR 17 HR season (150 GP).
Justin Upton & Zac Gallen both peaked and followed up their last season (or two) with okay but not great seasons. That’s why the fan base was so ready to trade J-Up in 2012-13 and why fans are totally fine letting Zac walk this winter in free agency.
While I was thinking of this comparison last night, I asked myself one question.
“Is there anything we can learn from the Justin Upton saga?”
Because looking back on the Justin Upton trade, it was a massive mistake. The Diamondbacks had Justin Upton under contract from 2013-15 for just $38M total. His next 3 seasons were fantastic.
Were the vibes so low in Arizona for Justin specifically that he needed this fresh start to thrive again? Probably yes.
Was the Justin Upton trade a mistake because we got nearly nothing for him? Yes. (Imagine no Nick Ahmed & the Diamondbacks just keeping Dansby Swanson… sigh)
Now does Zac Gallen need a fresh start too? Probably yes.
The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen issue has gotten really complex as Zac struggles mightily in 2025. Gallen currently leads the NL in walks (36) and has a career high in ERA (5.15), WHIP (1.33) and career low K/9 at 8.4. Gallen is easily on pace to give up a career high in HR’s too.
The 2024 Zac Gallen debate was always is he an ace who deserves an Aaron Nola style $175M bag? Or a SP2 who deserves far less?
Zac Gallen’s 2025 season though has completely squashed the $150M SP1 debate and started a new debate…
Is Zac Gallen going to get $50M+ in free agency for the Diamondbacks to even get a comp pick?
Scott Boras has shown a willingness lately to have players bet on themselves on 1-2 year deals with options attached (Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery). In this scenario where Gallen gets a 1 year deal with a 2nd year option… he’s going to be way under the $50M threshold to get the Diamondbacks a comp 1st round pick like they received for Christian Walker leaving in free agency. Zac Gallen is a lock to turn down the qualifying offer no matter what as that excludes him from ever receiving that tag again, but it does nothing for the Diamondbacks if he doesn’t get that $50M minimum.
With the Scott Boras precedent set, this has become a really difficult decision for Mike Hazen and this front office.
We’ll save the “should the Diamondbacks be sellers or not” debate for another day, but Zac Gallen is currently one of the worst starting pitchers in the National League, so he’s not helping you either. The Diamondbacks depth has taken a hit with Mena & Burnes getting hurt + Brandon Pfaadt may be broken, but if you can get “1st round comp pick value” back for Gallen (if not more), then maybe you do it?
As I look at historic situations for the Diamondbacks, it feels like they may be cursed, and we’re just in year 3 of their usual cycle.
If we take a look at the 2019 trade deadline, we can see how Mike Hazen has handled similar situations in the past. The Diamondbacks dumped a struggling John Ryan Murphy, did the Gallen trade (would love to swap a hitting prospect for pitching prospect this year too), then moved off Greinke’s $$$ while also acquiring Mike Leake to stay competitive down the stretch.
I could see the Diamondbacks cashing in Gallen now, while also going out and getting Mike Leake or 2024 Josh Bell style vets to stay competitive down the stretch. The Diamondbacks buy & sell strategy in 2019 may be something you see Mike Hazen use again in 2025.
Lastly, yes, I think teams will want to trade for 2025 Zac Gallen still. East coast Zac Gallen cannot be ignored:
4/2 at NYY: 6.2 IP 3 H 0 R 13 K
5/1 at NYM: 6 IP 2 H 1 R 8 K
6/3 at ATL: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 K
Everyone needs starting pitching and anyone selling it will be able to get a nice return in July. Here’s last year’s trade deadline SP trades:
-Jack Flaherty (pitching awesome but allegedly had bad medicals) for INF Trey Sweeney & now #5 prospect Thayron Liranzo.
-Alex Cobb (middle of the road SP who’s always injured) for prospects LHP SP Jacob Bresnahan & 2B Nate Furman
-Trevor Rogers for Connor Norby & Kyle Stowers (rare MIA win)
-Yusei Kikcuhi for Jake Bloss (SP) Joey Loperfido (OF) Will Wagner (2B). (This would be a dream scenario as Kikuchi was an impending FA and Houston was really buying his upside here.
Even underachieving, there will be a market for Zac Gallen and maybe it’s best to cash him in now. Zac’s next couple starts will be hugely important for his Diamondbacks future. He’s looking at a tough SD matchup Saturday, then at Coors Field next Friday then vs White Sox the following Wednesday.
It’s bummer that this is how the Zac Gallen Diamondbacks era is coming to an end. I’ll leave you with this, it’s okay to be frustrated overall with Gallen, but when we look back on his career I hope it’s remembered for being awesome. All star game starter, legit Cy Young contender and overall really cool Diamondback.
So here’s to hoping Gallen turns it around starting Saturday, if not, he may be pitching in a new jersey very soon.
-Goldy Happens