TRADE: AJ Puk in, DDLS Out

PUK-YEAH!

It’s 6:45 PM as I sit at Talking Stick Resort Amphitheater for the 2nd night in a row hoping to finally see the Kenny Chesney concert. After a rainout yesterday, once again the desert heat starts to melt away with rolling clouds and wind surrounding the venue. Vibes? Low, is this about to get postponed again?

Then the crowd goes wild out of nowhere as a massive Kenny Chesney banner covers the stage and the crew starts to set up the stage. As I take a look at my phone to check the time, I’m flooded by texts and notifications.

THE DBACKS ACQUIRE AJ PUK FROM THE MARLINS

As I rush to open up Twitter, my initial thoughts were:

1. I thought Tanner Scott would be dealt first from Miami

2. AJ Puk definitely has years of control left (through 2026)

As I start to dive into Puk’s Statcast page and splits, the Deyvison De Los Santos part of the trade breaks, sending everyone into a spiral. Here was my 1st thought:

I want to start with AJ Puk. FINALLY, Brent Strom has a high upside/great stuff LHP to work with. The Marlins have been killed with SP injuries and had to throw AJ Puk into the rotation, which went badly. This caused Puk’s season stats and Statcast page (2023 left, 2024 right) to not paint the entire picture.

AJ Puk as a RP has been LIGHTS OUT.

Gambo also confirmed the obvious, the Diamondbacks didn’t want to part with DDLS for a rental like Tanner Scott, but Puk is under team control via arbitration through 2026. Additionally, you gotta hope Brent Strom can squeeze some more out of AJ Puk too.

AJ Puk has allowed a run in just 1 of his last 15 games too.

The Diamondbacks badly needed another LHP in the bullpen. With Thompson, Martinez, Ginkel dealing and Sewald closing, the missing piece is a LHP. Joe Mantiply has been fine, around 4 ERA, around 1.25 WHIP, but settles in nicely as a 2nd LHP.

I can’t remember a deeper or better bullpen than what the Diamondbacks have right now. Here is the current bullpen + Puk’s 2.08 RP ERA:

And here is last years…

The Diamondbacks have had 2-3 reliable late inning guys in the past, but this bullpen is STACKED. Sewald, Thompson, Puk, Martinez, Ginkel gives Torey 5 late game options to mix with Jarvis & Mantiply having solid seasons. The last spot will go to Miguel Castro I expect with Vieira getting sent down to AAA, but if all the starters actually do come back, Ryne Nelson/Yilber Diaz could kick Castro to DFA limbo (fingers crossed).

Quickly on Andrew Pintar, 2023 5th round pick. He battled injuries and struggled last season, but healthy now and has had a really nice year slashing .285/.384/.468 with 9 HR and 19 SB this year. He’s moved from 2B at BYU to CF this year, he’s a nice player who does a lot of things well, but I see him as a future utility/4th OF type guy. Most of his production came in A ball, as he is slashing .184/.289/.237 in 38 AA AB’s.

I’m perfectly fine dealing away Andrew Pintar, he’ll get a spotlight on Marlins prospect rankings since he was acquired via trade, but he’s not a real impact prospect to me.

Now about DDLS….

I’ve been pumping the breaks all year on DDLS coming up in 2024.

-C Walk is having a career year at 1B

-Peak Blaze couldn’t even start at 3B because of his glove, which is miles better than DDLS glove

-Joc/Grichuk have been phenomenal as a DH platoon. Also, in those limited vs LHP games those are spots for Gurriel and mostly Ketel to get some rest and DH.

While DDLS is just 21, the Diamondbacks apparently just didn’t believe the glove would improve… this is not something you want your scouting director publicly saying.

Building on that, the year DDLS has had transaction wise should have told us he would be a trade chip this year…

Sidenote: I really think the Diamondbacks re-sign Christian Walker. They’ll do what they did with Lourdes Gurriel Jr last year, let him test the market and circle back when the market develops. Christian Walker has expressed his desire to test free agency as he broke into the majors late and will be 34 next season. This will be his 1 crack at the free market.

Being 34, playing 1B, I don’t think he’s going to break the bank. The free agency market has been really tough on over 31 players. The Diamondbacks view C Walk as a leader in the clubhouse and on the field and he deserves a bag. They’ll get a deal done.

Back to DDLS, if you’re Mike Hazen and you don’t believe DDLS will be able to play the field, there’s never been a time to sell high. Everyday the Reno Aces post a video of him hitting an absolute nuke.

DDLS is hitting .325/.376/.635 (1.011 OPS) with 28 HR in 87 games in AA/AAA this year, but again, it is Reno. Andres Chaparro (MiLB free agent signing, big 1B/3B) is hitting .332/.405/.567 (.972 OPS) with 19 HR in 92 games. It’s really tricky to judge Reno power hitters. We’ve fell for the Peter O’Brien, Kevin Cron types, but again Christian Walker was also a 1B who mashed in Reno and turned out pretty good.

Been thinking about it all night, and there’s 2 paths I see for DDLS.

BEST CASE/CEILING: There’s a lot of Edwin Encarnacion characteristics in DDLS: 6’1, similiar body builds, corner infielders who aren’t good with the glove at all, insane power. Using Fangraphs *preseason grades, 70 grade raw power is insane, and he’s tapping into it.

DDLS strikeout numbers at 22% is a great sign, where often being around 30% is a cause for concern. You’d like to see him walk more as he’s at 5.2% in AAA (for example Encarnacion was 17.6% career K rate but 11.1% BB rate).

OKAY/MY PROJECTION: Pedro Alvarez.

For those that don’t remember former Pirates and Orioles corner infielder Pedro Alvarez:

Big power bat but horrible fielder. The 2 players could take a different path to the same result, as Alvarez. Alvarez had good plate discipline, but struck out a lot and hit too many grounds. DDLS has been fine with K’s, but that probably because he also hits too many ground balls and chases A LOT.

Deyvison De Los Santos has a 43.9% chase rate/o-swing % in AAA.

Just 4 qualified hitters in 2023 had a worse chase rate/o-swing %….

DDLS has a 49.7% groundball rate in AAA.

Just 13 qualified hitters in 2023 had a worse GB %….

That’s a Javier Baez crossover folks. (Pedro Alvarez had a career 47.2 GB %) DDLS is hitting in Reno too, which boosts the results and hides the swing choice process.

Again DDLS is just 21, but there’s REAL red flags. AJ Puk is having a phenomenal season in the bullpen, I wish DDLS the best and hope he develops in Miami, but I like this trade. Welcome to Arizona AJ Puk!

-Goldy Happens