Roster Moves are Coming
Domo is almost back!
“What should the Diamondbacks do when Alek Thomas & Geraldo Perdomo return?” is a question people have been asking online since mid April. Now in mid June, it’s time for the Diamondbacks to make a decision. With so many injuries on both sides of the ball, I wanted to write exact what I would do….
Let’s start with the offense. Perdomo could be back when the homestand starts Tuesday, while Alek is best case scenario 7-10 days away. So assuming Perdomo is back, Alek not yet, here is my 13 man offensive roster.
Vs RHP:
CF 1 Corbin Carroll
2B 2 Ketel Marte
DH 3 Joc Pederson
1B 4 Christian Walker
LF 5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr
RF 6 Jake McCarthy
C 7 Gabriel Moreno
3B 8 Eugenio Suarez/Kevin Newman
SS 9 Geraldo Perdomo/Kevin Newman
BENCH: Randal Grichuk, Pavin Smith, Tucker Barnhart
Send down Blaze Alexander when Geraldo Perdomo is activated.
This move pains me as a massive Blaze Alexander fan and Pavin Smith hater. Blaze Alexander has had an incredible rookie season hitting .283 with 3 HR, 2 SB and improving defense. There’s levels to decision:
Let Blaze play 3B everyday in Reno. With Eugenio Suarez on essentially a 1 year deal and struggling mightily (bottom 10 in all of baseball in wRC+ for qualified hitters), Blaze’s next path to AB’s in 3B. With a big arm, I think Blaze at 3B would be a natural position for him long term. Jordan Lawlar just came back too, but he’s a spectacular SS who should get 100% of reps at SS. Blaze should play 2-1 starts at 3B and 2B. With Perdomo & Lawlar in AZ + Kevin Newman this season, there’s no reason to keep working Blaze this season & long term at SS.
I have to tip my cap to Pavin Smith. As everyone knows, I’m a massive Pavin Smith hater. He was taunted as the Paul Goldschmidt replacement for years, then competed with Christian Walker for 1B reps. After hitting only 31 HR in 1155 career PA’s, low .319 career OBP & .705 career OPS (under .700 OPS last 2 seasons), the Pavin Smith starting lineup days are over. Pavin has found his niche as a pinch hitter though. In 11 pinch hit PA’s, Pavin is 3-10 with a BB, 2B and walk off homer. While Blaze can be the future 3B of the Diamondbacks, Pavin is what he is. Being the last bench bat until Alek Thomas hopefully comes back in a week or two works.
Kevin Newman has been awesome! Preseason I hyped up the Newman signing due to his ability to play the entire infield and hit LHP. Newman has been a legit solid to good everyday SS in Perdomo’s IL stint and 100% earned a full time roster spot. I expect Perdomo to start vs RHP, Newman LHP
The splits are actually a little more intense in 2024, Kevin Newman is slashing (AVG/OBP/SLG) .293/.305/.448 vs LHP. Perdomo was just 2-10 in his limited LHP AB’s. Coming off a torn meniscus, giving Perdomo days off is a good idea.
Kevin Newman could get some AB’s at 3B too, but he’s struggled vs RHP slashing .228/.276/.315 (.591 OPS). Still, Eugenio Suarez has been WORSE, slashing .194/.249/.333 vs RHP (.582 OPS). Suarez has been terrible vs LHP .217/.310/.283 (.593 OPS). This is why I want Blaze in AAA playing as much 3B as possible, as Eugenio Suarez should be on the hot seat. Suarez has been getting worse lately too.
Jordan Lawlar has had an exciting 1st week back from his thumb injury in Arizona Complex League too. 8-25, 8 RBI, 5 SB, 5 BB. Jordan Lawlar only played 16 games in AAA Reno last year, so I think it’d be wise to give him 6 weeks before even considering a call up. Hand/thumb/wrist injuries are really difficult to come back from mid-season too. If Lawlar does rake in the minors, he can play SS and Perdomo/Newman can slide over to 3B no issue. Keep in mind, Perdomo slid over to 3B last year when Lawlar played.
Now the pitching….
Current IL: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Blake Walston, Drey Jameson, Miguel Castro, Kyle Nelson.
The Gallen, Kelly, E-Rod trio is playing catch, but feels pretty far off from returning. This would be my rotation for now.
1 Brandon Pfaadt - Been great, just needs to avoid that 1 blow up inning every start.
2 Jordan Montgomery - He’s been awful, but as I tweet this week: A good sign on Jordan Montgomery is his Statcast page isn’t drastically different this year. Big problem is his FB VELO down 2 MPH, hopefully that was just bc of no ST. Fall off on his sinker is killing him… best pitch now his worst pitch? 93 & 93.3 last 2 year, 91.6 this year.
Montgomery’s $20M vesting option kicks in with his next start, so you just have to ride out Jordan Montgomery’s slump and hope he re-finds his 2023 form. The no Spring Training is definitely messing with him.
3 Slade Cecconi - Slade hasn’t been great, but he’s the best of the remaining options right now. 2023 Brandon Pfaadt vibes of being really good 1st 2 times around the order and horrible the 3rd. Take a look at these splits….
Slade Cecconi screams RP, but for now he’s the one SP I think is worth using an opener for. Torey uses his opener games at random without any real plan, but for Slade it makes sense because he is elite 1st time through the lineup. By having his first batter come in the 2nd inning, he faces the top of lineup just twice, bottom of the lineup potentially 3 times. 15 scoreless innings in the 1st and 2nd inning is incredible though, can’t wait until we can use Slade in the bullpen.
4 Ryne Nelson- Ryne Nelson is a reliever. In college, he was the closer for great Oregon teams and pumped 100 MPH. The Diamondbacks have been obsessed with making him a starter with RP stuff as a 1 pitch heater guy. Ryne Nelson has zero juice.
The 2024 have been forced to stick with Ryne in the rotation, but I think Slade can be an impact RP & Ryne would be fine as a long reliever… maybe. Is Ryne Nelson better than Bryce Jarvis? Through 40 GS & 212.1 IP Nelson has a career 5.14 ERA. Bryce Jarvis Statcast page looks similar, but a career 3.47 ERA in 59.2 IP is great for the role.
In Nelson’s favor is the odds of all 5 Diamondback SP’s being healthy is low. With Slade’s RP upside, Nelson may stick around as the SP5 for awhile….
5 Tommy Henry- Back to my “Torey uses his opener games at random without any real plan” claim, the Diamondbacks used SCOTT MCGOUGH as the opener (gave up a HR to Tatis Jr) in front of Tommy Henry, who has been really good in AAA Reno. 6 GS, 3.41 ERA, 32 K in 31.2 IP with just 1 ER in 3 straight starts. Torey decided it was a good idea to use him as a RP… and it didn’t go great on Sunday. I’d still role out Tommy Henry as the SP5.
Personally, I’d send down Ryne Nelson to AAA and keephim stretched out for emergencies, roll with Tommy Henry in the rotation and make the SP5, Cristian Mena. I do want to say maybe the Diamondbacks are working on things with Mena and don’t want him to debut yet, but he’s been great in a tough AAA Reno. 70 K’s in 66.2 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.47 WHIP. Mena is still only 21, but his stuff is great, he’s been a lot better away from a brutal high elevation Reno, and a cup of coffee with Brett Strom could be a good idea.
And finally, the bullpen.
Early in the season, I wrote about the Diamondbacks bullpen actually be okay. Since then, it’s been great.
Paul Sewald: 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA (1 ER), 11 K
Ryan Thompson: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP (Brad Ziegler 2.0)
Justin Martinez: 23 IP, 0.39 ERA (1 ER), 27 K
Kevin Ginkel since taking 110 MPH line drive off his knee: 4 scoreless innings
The Diamondbacks team bullpen ERA is tied for last in the MLB at 4.94, but when the back-end 4 have been incredible, I don’t mind it. Bryce Jarvis in his long relief role & Joe Mantiply both have ERA’s under 4 and are 1-2 in appearances with 27 & 29. The bottom 2 RP spots have been terrible though.
Logan Allen 5.46 ERA, Scott McGough 6.62 ERA, Brandon Hughes 10.13 ERA, Miguel Castro 5.19, Matt Bowman 8.10, Luis Frias 9.95, Andrew Saalfrank 36.00, Humberto Castellanos 19.29.
With the fantastic four back-end, Jarvis & Mantiply being solid, I’d love to see Slade eventually move to the bullpen. That’s 7 RP’s, ideally the Diamondbacks can trade for a #1 lefty to take pressure off Joe Mantiply. Cough cough, Miami Marlins Tanner Scott.
So those are my Diamondbacks thoughts! Lots of roster decisions coming up, but overall things are still good. With just 4 teams over .500 in the ENTIRE NL, the Diamondbacks slow start is fine.
Angels & White Sox this week at Chase, the patch work rotation needs to hold on this week.
Be on the lookout for Part 4 of my “Every Top 100 DBacks Prospect Ever” this week! 1997-2011 is up now, click here!
-Goldy Happens
Hmmmmm….